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October is off to a historically warm start over much of Europe after its hottest September on record. And the next several days promise more record heat.

So far this month, thousands of locations have set calendar day record highs, and scores have also set records for the entire month of October. Spain, France, Poland, Austria and Slovenia all posted their highest October temperatures.

Weather historian Maximiliano Herrera described the early October heat as “one of the most extreme events” in the continent’s history based on the “quantity of records,” the size of the area affected and the “insane” margins by which records were surpassed.

The early-month heat eased some late last week, but record-challenging highs returned to Dublin, London, Paris, Madrid and Rome on Monday. Temperatures are set to remain about 10 to 20 degrees (5.5 to 11 Celsius) above normal through Friday in all but far northern Europe.

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Many additional records are probable before more autumn-like weather takes over next week.

How warm it will be

Here are forecast highs in several major cities in Europe:

On Tuesday and Wednesday

• London: Mid-70s (normal: low 60s).
• Paris: Near 80 (normal: mid-60s).
• Madrid: Low 80s (normal: low 70s).
• Amsterdam: Near 70 (normal: near 60).
• Rome: Low-to-mid 80s (normal: low-to-mid 70s).

On Wednesday (as the warmth expands eastward)

• Berlin: Mid-70s (normal: near 60).
• Vienna: 80 (normal: near 60).
• Warsaw: 70 (normal: upper 60s).
• Budapest: Low 70s (normal: low 60s).

Why is this happening?

By October, the cool breezes of fall are often blowing across Europe, but not this year. Multiple zones of high pressure — or heat domes — have developed over southwestern Europe and helped circulate abnormally warm weather over much of the continent. These heat domes are typical in the summer but have persisted longer than usual into the fall.

This week’s heat dome is situated over southwestern Europe and will drift east over the coming the days, bringing the warmest weather compared to normal between the Mediterranean and Scandinavia.

Here’s how hot it’s been

Remarkable heat kicked off October, especially in Western and Central Europe, where some records were broken by as much as 10 degrees (5.5 Celsius). Temperatures from 85 to 95 degrees (29 to 35 Celsius) shattered records over much of Spain, before spilling eastward toward Austria and Switzerland.

Parts of Europe have seen unprecedented heat to start the month 🌡️

Several national temperature records for October have provisionally been broken

The UK will tap into the heat this week, though our October record (29.9°C at Gravesend in 2011) is not expected to be challenged pic.twitter.com/8cVmcSwoYS

According to Britain’s Weather Service, the Met Office, four European nations saw their highest October temperatures. Slovenia became the fifth, according to Slovenia’s meteorological service, as a new pulse of heat developed this weekend. Here are the records listed:

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• Spain: 100.8 degrees (38.2 Celsius) in Montoro on Oct. 1.
• France: 96.4 degrees (35.8 Celsius) in Navarrenx on Oct. 2.
• Slovenia: 88.4 degrees (31.3 Celsius) in Crnomelj on Oct. 8.
• Austria: 86.5 degrees (30.3 Celsius) in Langenlebarn on Oct. 3.
• Poland: 84.8 degrees (29.3 Celsius) in Legnica on Oct. 3.

In addition to Slovenia’s national record on Sunday, records for the date and month were widespread from Spain to Italy and countries immediately to their north. The region saw not only abnormally warm afternoon highs but also summerlike low temperatures in the 60s (15 to 20 Celsius).

On Monday, Italy, France, Austria, Ireland, Britain and Spain approached or broke numerous records, according to weather tracking website coolwx.com, as displayed below. Preliminarily, numerous monthly — in addition to calendar day — records were set.

Most locations in France — or 744 out of 1,179 observing sites — have set monthly record highs this month, according to weather historian Don Sutherland.

Part of a very warm stretch of years

Although the ongoing warmth in Europe is out of season, it is consistent with what Europe has experienced much of this year. The year began with many countries witnessing their warmest January day.

Europe and the planet overall just posted their hottest September on record, according to Copernicus Climate Service of the European Union. September’s extraordinary warmth followed the hottest three-month period observed on earth, June to August.

Countries that saw their warmest September in Europe included France, the United Kingdom, Hungary, Switzerland, Belgium, Moldova, Poland and Finland among others. In some cases, temperatures were as much as 7 degrees (4 Celsius) above normal averaged over the month.

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The persistent high pressure zones over Southern Europe and a flow of hot air from North Africa have ensured that scorching conditions keep on coming. Widespread drought, particularly in Southern Europe from Spain to Greece, has also intensified the heat.

While the intense and still strengthening El Niño is boosting warmth globally, human-caused climate change is behind the long-term trend toward higher temperatures. With Europe poised to have its warmest year on record, it only has to look to 2022 for its last warmest year and 2020 before that.

What’s next?

Over the next few days, most of Europe will remain in the throes of temperatures about 10 to 20 degrees above average.

By the weekend, cooler air will begin to spill southward over Europe, arriving first in Britain before spreading over Scandinavia and eventually France and Germany. That push of cooler air will progress eastward next week but probably will stay north of the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean, where there’s no sign of a meaningful cool-down.

Jason Samenow contributed to this report.

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